The signs are all there: The sun is setting earlier, the heat is coming on at night, and Christmas decorations are out before Halloween candy has even had a chance to hit the sales rack.
This can only mean one thing: Winter is almost upon us!
Todd Howell and the 10Weather team will make their meteorological winter predictions before Halloween arrives. But until then, let's have a little fun!
Let's delve into the ancient and less-than-scientific art of predicting winter's wrath with some seeds and bugs.
Folklore winter predictions have always been a fascination in Appalachia. So much so, that some towns and parks hold festivals around it.
Last year, we took a trek to Hiwassee/Ocoee Scenic River State Park in Polk County, Tenn. to find a kernel of truth being offered up that persimmon seeds could predict winter.
In case you are unaware, each year the park slices open 25 seeds -- and the shape formed by the kernel inside determines what kind of winter we're in store for. There are three basic shapes: fork, knife and spoon.
A fork-shaped kernel means a mild winter. A knife-shaped kernel indicates a bitterly cold winter with winds that "cut" through you. A spoon-shaped kernel means there will be plenty of snow for people to "shovel."
With that said -- the Hiwassee kernels have predicted a snowy and somewhat bitter winter for 2018 - 2019.
14 of the seeds were spoon shaped (snowy), with 8 knives (bitterly cold) and 3 forks (average).
So, let's say you don't trust these persimmon predictions. Perhaps you should let something more active and competitive to be your guide?
How does racing woolly worms strike you, then?
Each year for the past 41 years, the town of Banner Elk, N.C. near Sugar Mountain has hosted the Woolly Worm Festival.
The editor for the now-defunct Mountain Living Magazine, Jim Morton, got the idea for the festival in the late 70s when he photographed colorful banded woolly bear caterpillars for a piece on winter predictions, and noticed they had interesting variations in their color band patterns.
It struck him that there should be some 'formal' method of predicting the winter forecast using the woolly worm folklore, so residents came up with the Woolly Worm Festival in 1978.
The prediction method is a three-step process. First, people go out into the woods and find a woolly bear caterpillar they think has the need for speed.
Then, they race those caterpillars at the festival along three-foot lengths of string in different heats.
Once the winner is determined, that woolly worm becomes that year's harbinger of winter -- and they hold the 'Reading of the Worm' to read the different color bands and determine what kind of winter is in store.
2018's winner was a woolly worm named 'Montgomery County's Best.'
As for the colors... they matched closely with the persimmon seed predictions! The worm had 13 bands representing the 13 weeks of winter. The darker its bands, the harsher the winter.
A black band means a below average winter week with snow. A dark brown band means just below average. Light brown means above average, and a mix of both black and brown (flick) means below average with frost or a light snow.
'Montgomery County's Best' didn't have a single light brown band on it... predicting a harsh winter all-around. Most of its bands were either black or a 'flick,' meaning it looks like there's going to be some snow!
With rough winter predictions like these, we're thinking NOAA's model of an utterly boring, average winter is looking pretty good right about now.