KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — After weeks of warnings, escalating tensions, international mediations and confusion — Russia crossed Ukraine's borders invaded the country late Wednesday evening. The attack led to international outrage and condemnation, as well as concern over how the invasion could impact the rest of the world.
A University of Tennessee professor of political science, Dr. Michael Fitzgerald, warned people that the invasion could have longstanding consequences as leaders begin sanctions against Russia and respond to the invasion with threats of further escalation.
"We're in for a long haul here," said Fitzgerald. "This isn't a short-term crisis in my judgment, the Russians are back."
He said that since 1991, when former U.S. president George H. W. Bush and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev ended the Cold War, Russia has pushed against NATO expansion and stood against a unified Germany.
As part of the negotiations that ended the Cold War, he said Russian troops left East Germany with an assurance that NATO would not expand towards their borders. However, he said NATO continued to expand towards the western boundary of Russia.
He also said Russia was left out of international negotiations after battles in Serbia and Yugoslavia, and to Russian nationalists like Putin, the NATO bombings in the Kosovo War may still resonate today.
"What we're seeing here is a legacy of the end of the last Cold War, right up until now when, bottom line, Putin has been warning that as NATO got closer and closer, the Russians would do whatever is necessary to create a buffer between itself and the west," he said.
In the last 20 years, he said Putin has modernized his military to be a powerful force on the ground, with demonstrations of force in Crimea and the formation of Russian-backed eastern Ukraine.
He said there were warning signs that Russia was expanding its military when the country started being involved in the Middle East, with a presence in Syria.
"In the last 20 years, NATO and the United States have fundamentally dismissed Russia and the Russians as a serious player in international events, and Putin has expanded his capacity to be a player in international events," he said. "Putin has developed his capacity to undertake this kind of thing, the west has not matched that capacity or willingness to resist it, and now we have to deal with the reality."
He also warned against taking Putin at his word that the Russian military would leave Ukraine. He said if Putin sees an opportunity to take over the country, he would likely take it.
He also said Ukraine was not likely to get its eastern territories back. He also warned that Russia could try to establish a Ukrainian government that would be friendlier to Russian interests, despite warnings from western leaders about economic sanctions.
"I think they've already built in the economic price of this, and I think they have their doubts that the rest of the world will maintain economic sanctions," he said.
He said that the U.S. was not likely to put troops on the ground in Ukraine, and he said NATO has not guaranteed a military response either. He also said NATO would likely need to bolster its military in Eastern Europe to maintain a strong presence against a new Russian threat.
Dr. Krista Wiegand, an associate professor of political science at UT, said the same thing. She said the countries got through 45 years of the Cold War without directly fighting each other, and it was not likely to change.
"I think it is highly unlikely that U.S. troops will directly fight Russian troops even if the war worsens," she said. "The U.S. has never fought a war against another major power with nuclear weapons since they've been invented."
"The other choice that confronts us is recognizing Russia's sphere of influence," he said. "NATO could enter into serious and prolonged negotiations with Russia over a new geopolitical map that Putin has carved out in Russia."
He encouraged U.S. citizens to read a translation of Putin's address to Russia about his actions. He said Putin intended to tell the world that Russia was a modern nation with a strong military in that address.
"I think that was a veiled threat that, 'We're back and ultimately if we can't negotiate solutions and you will not cede to our status in the world ... be prepared that this could be more than simply a conventional response,'" he said. "We, in many ways today, are in the most delicate situation than we've been in since the Cuban Missile Crisis."
He warned that economic sanctions or international public opinion could not be decisive in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
"We have to calculate just how far we are willing and able, in the west, to thwart Russian nationalism," he said. "There are no questions, we are in Cold War Two."