KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — When Putin first invaded Russia's small neighbor to the west, few people expected Ukraine to persevere as much as it has. But last week, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive that helped them retake control of a large village and positioned them to retake a vital transport junction.
In the early days of the invasion, Putin publically said he expected Ukraine's capital to fall to Russian forces. But the city still stands, and a professor of history who studies Eastern Europe at the University of Tennessee said that was a major turning point in the war.
"Putin's assumption was, and he stated this quite openly, that he doesn't think of Ukraine as a real country or Ukrainians as a real people who have an identity all their own," said Vejas Liulevicius, who has worked at UT for 27 years. "That initial resistance — that initial refusal to fall, I think, was the real turning point."
He also said that Putin's invasion helped provide a sense of unity in Ukraine that may not have been possible a decade earlier. He said that the fighting helped forge a unique and specific national identity among Ukrainian people, who struggled with issues relating to fragmentation and corruption in their country in previous years.
But still, he said he expected the war to rage for months. He said last week's counteroffensive reminded him of words from Winston Churchill after the Allies started winning battles against the Axis powers — "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
"For Russia, this was a war of choice," said Liulevicius. "For Ukraine, it's a question of survival. I think that another time aspect that comes into play is Putin's miscalculation of what the reaction would be of Ukrainians and of the world to this invasion. I think if he had tried this ten years previously, there might be a different dynamic at work."
He said that most of the people fighting for Ukraine were young, and they did not share Putin's memory of the Soviet Union or a Russian empire. He said that for them, such nationalist ideals do not have much appeal.
He also said Putin is facing criticism from nationalist commentators who previously supported him. He said they used to share the belief that the invasion would be quick and easy.
"For Russia, for Putin particularly, there's no inner necessity,m except for perhaps in his twisted logic, of a move like this," said Liulevicius. "It's really a question of identity, and that speaks to values. It's been said that the dynamic of Russian statehood is a complicated one. Russia without Ukraine is a country. Russia with Ukraine is an empire. And empires, in Putin's imagination, are something to long for, something to desire ... For Ukrainians, the matter is far simpler. It's a matter of whether they survive as a people."
For that, he said President Joe Biden and other western leaders may continue lending their support to Ukraine. He said some plans were calibrated for long-term support of Ukraine, with some discussions of Ukrainian reconstruction.
"I think the level of support has been strong and determined," he said.