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VERIFY: Are crime rates really rising?

Despite what political advertisements and social media may say, crime rates are actually decreasing across the U.S.

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — A Pew Research Center research study from April showed roughly 58% of Americans believe reducing crime should be the president’s top priority. That number is up from 47% in 2021.

A Gallup poll from November 2023 also showed that 77% of Americans believe crime is rising nationally, while 55% believe it is rising locally.

“The discussion of crime in politics has existed for seemingly forever,” said Lauren Wright, an assistant professor at Tennessee Tech. “But it’s been a very big thing since the 1960s, ever since they introduced the war on crime.”

Crime statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigation showed a dramatic decrease in violent and property crime rates in recent decades. The bureau's data showed violent crime fell by 49% from 1993 to 2022.

The FBI also said in 2024, violent crime rates across the U.S. from January through March fell by 15%, compared to that timeframe last year.

The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation reported in 2022 murder rates in the state fell by almost 9% compared to the previous year. The Knoxville Police Department also said through the first quarter of 2024, based on preliminary reports, the number of non-fatal shootings was down 58% compared to that same time last year.

“Social media can be a wonderful place and it can be a place where a lot of misinformation spreads,” said Wright. “Things that are being made into TV shows and movies, and people think that’s because it’s happening a lot.”

Wright also said when people are exposed to stories about crime more often, such as from some news outlets, they may believe crime is happening more often than it actually is.

“Look things up. Explore. Do your own data collection and see, ‘Is this something that is actually real?'" she said.

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