NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The results of Vanderbilt University's semiannual poll of voters were released Friday, reflecting on the impact of the 2024 election on Tennessee voters.
Overall, the poll shows the election had little impact on Tennesseans' stances on key issues. A notable difference was the increased approval for state lawmakers since May, despite the poll showing leaders often holding positions on some issues that are out of step with Tennesseans.
Registered voters voiced overwhelming support for Medicaid expansion and continued support for women's health and reproductive care. There was also a misalignment between the public’s views and the state government’s inaction on gun reform and legalization of recreational marijuana—both of which have bipartisan backing.
“While much ink has been spilled about what the election results mean about the electorate, these results suggest little change in the opinions of Tennesseans, which means the misalignment between voters and elected officials continues,” John Geer, co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll, said.
The survey included 955 registered voters from Nov. 18 to Dec. 4 and was conducted in English.
Divided opinions on state direction, MAGA identity
The poll shows that Tennesseans are divided on whether the state is on the right track. Views vary by gender with 60% of men and 41% of women saying they believe the state is on the right track. Independents were roughly split on their view.
Furthermore, self-identification as a MAGA Republican increased from 46% to 60% among GOP voters since May.
According to Josh Clinton, the Vanderbilt Poll co-director, the increase stems from the MAGA brand overtaking the Republican brand.
“The shift we see is almost certainly a statement about how the MAGA brand has overtaken the Republican brand in the state—especially coming off of a successful election," Clinton said. "The policies Tennesseans support and the opinions they express have not dramatically changed since we have been tracking the views of registered Tennessee voters.”
Overall, conservative self-identification has remained steady at 48%, nearly identical to 47% in November 2015.
Approval for Tennessee lawmakers
The Vanderbilt Poll showed that approval ratings for state lawmakers increased. Voter approval of the Tennessee General Assembly saw a seven-point jump from 46% in May 2024 to 53% post-election.
Governor Bill Lee's approval climbed to 60%, up from 54% in May 2024. U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn's approval ratings jumped from 46% to 53%, while Senator Bill Hagerty's jumped from 40% to 46%.
“Tennesseans expressed increased satisfaction with their state officials as well as the U.S. Congress,” Clinton said. “This is likely an afterglow of the election and possibly reflective of a fading memory of the contentious last session. Approvals have increased six to seven points since the May 2024 poll.”
However, this trend did not extend to federal officials. President Joe Biden’s approval remains low at 29% and President-Elect Donald Trump’s approval stands at 55%, up one point from December 2020.
Women's health and reproductive care
When asked about women's health, Tennesseans' stance has gradually increased when it comes to abortion access. It was 37% in 2012, 48% in 2022 and now it stands at 53% approval for having a choice.
Tennessee is among the 13 states that have banned nearly all abortions, while voters overwhelmingly support several exceptions. This includes abortion in cases of rape, incest and fetal viability.
When asked if abortion should be legal in cases of rape, 82% said yes. For incest, 81% said abortion should be legal.
Legal and moral support for in vitro fertilization (IVF) also increased with 87% affirming its legality and 88% viewing it as morally acceptable or neutral. According to the poll, this is a five-point increase from the May 2024 poll.
State and citizens misaligned on gun reform, cannabis
When it comes to discussing important issues in Tennessee, like gun reform and marijuana legalization, voters and elected officials are at a crossroads. Both issues share strong bipartisan support among registered voters, contrasting with lawmakers.
According to the poll, 86% of voters strongly or somewhat support passing laws that require gun owners to report lost or stolen firearms, with 74% being MAGA Republicans. Seventy-eight percent of the voters support enacting red flag laws, which temporarily restrict gun access for people deemed at high risk for harming themselves or others.
Women, in particular, favor gun reforms more than men. Their support exceeds men by up to 29 percentage points.
For cannabis laws, the Vanderbilt Poll found 63% of voters supporting recreational legalization, with 36% opposing. Fifty-three percent of Republicans support legalization, with 78% of Democrats in favor. Despite the strong bipartisan support for recreational marijuana legalization, the majority of Tennessee lawmakers have passed legislation to the contrary.
Medicaid expansion and health care accountability
Voters were asked if they supported a state expansion of Medicaid to cover more low-income and uninsured people.
Seventy-three percent strongly agreed or somewhat agreed, including a majority of Republicans. Results also show that 79% of women and 66% of men support the expansion.
Eighty-eight percent of voters surveyed said that mental health care access should be a top priority for the state. On federal health care issues, 87% of Tennessee voters agreed that health care costs are too high and that the government should do more to negotiate cheaper prices.
As for out-of-pocket costs for prescription medications, 87% agree that the costs should be covered for adults with health insurance.
When it comes to parties deemed responsible for high health care costs, Tennesseans place blame on insurance companies (34%) and pharmaceutical companies (30%), with doctors and hospitals deemed less at fault at 10%.
“These numbers are a positive indicator of approval for Nashville’s health care economy, which is historically rooted in the provider space—the doctors and hospitals that receive little blame, especially when compared to the other sectors of the industry,” Geer said.
Deportation
The poll shows that Tennessee voter views on deportation have changed whether or not someone living in the country has a criminal record.
If undocumented people have a criminal record, 84% of voters strongly or somewhat support deportation. If they do not have a criminal record, deportation support decreases "dramatically," according to the poll.
Economic and financial concerns
Tennessee voters are more worried about financial stability, compared to May 2021.
Concerns about emergency savings, like medical care or car repairs, increased 22 points to 54%, while worries about having enough money to pay monthly bills increased 16 points to 38%. The concern about savings for retirement or children's education increased by 17 points to 59%.
Views on education, climate change and nuclear power
Education remains a top priority for Tennesseans, even though opinions on school vouchers remain divided. Forty-seven percent supported vouchers, 44% opposed and 7% were neutral.
As for climate change, the belief that it's "not happening" increased by two points to 19%, "not sure" increased by four points to 20% and "happening" decreased by seven points to 60%. The poll shows those who are worried about climate change decreased from 51% to 46%.
Regarding nuclear energy, Tennesseans are showing their support as a way to generate low-carbon energy. This trend is relevant as the Tennessee Valley Authority is finding ways to shrink its carbon footprint.
State's confidence in 2024 election and democracy in danger
The poll highlights registered Tennessee voters' high confidence in the fairness and accuracy of the recent election.
Eighty-one percent expressed their confidence in the nationwide election, with 90% expressing confidence in the Tennessee-run election. This is in contrast to the Vanderbilt poll after the 2020 election, which showed 48% were confident in the nationwide results and 91% were confident in the Tennessee results.
Meanwhile, concerns about threats to democracy have eased from 63% in May to 52% in December. In May, 5% of voters said American democracy is not in danger.
