Florence, the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic season, could hit the East Coast next week – or spin harmlessly out to sea.
"A close encounter with the United States is not unrealistic later next week," Weather Channel hurricane expert Greg Postel said Wednesday. If it hits the United States, a landfall anywhere from the Carolinas to New England is possible, according to AccuWeather.
The computer models that meteorologists use to predict storm tracks offer two basic forecasts. One shows the storm following a path directly toward the U.S.; the other shows a curving track out to sea.
As of late Wednesday, Florence was a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
Weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue said we "must now seriously consider this storm a U.S. landfall threat."
Where Florence goes, and how strong it grows, depends on the locations and strength of other weather systems, including large areas of high pressure that will steer and guide the storm as it moves across the Atlantic.
"I would not expect a yes/no answer on potential landfall for another two days," Maue said.
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said it was"too early to change plans," but "all interests in Bermuda and along the East Coast of the U.S. should closely monitor the movement of Florence over this weekend and next week."
The Weather Channel cautioned that "you may see various forecast model depictions for Florence's path in social media or elsewhere, but it's important to know these are not official forecasts."
The hurricane center does not make official predictions beyond five days, because the farther out computer model forecasts go, the less reliable they are.
Even its five-day forecast "is of low confidence," the hurricane center says.
At least for now, Florence poses no immediate threat to any land areas. Atmidday Wednesday, the center of the storm was more than 2,200 miles from Miami.
Two other storms could also form in the Eastern Atlantic by the end of the week as the season reaches what's typically its most active period. The next two named storms will be Helene and Isaac.
"We may have as many as three named tropical systems in the Atlantic at the same time next week," Kottlowski said.
