KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — The White House Coronavirus Task Force is urging Tennessee leadership to take immediate action as COVID-19's spread and health impact continues to worsen across the state.
Virtually all metrics of serious concern -- deaths from COVID-19, hospitalizations, positivity rates, and new cases -- have become considerably worse in recent weeks across the state of Tennessee and U.S.
On Wednesday, Tennessee reported 4,472 new cases of COVID-19, 53 new deaths, and 1,982 current hospitalizations. While new cases grew significantly, the number of new tests has dropped in recent days -- increasing the positivity rate. Nearly 1 in 6 people who received a test were reported COVID-19 positive Tuesday. One week ago, that rate was roughly 1 in 10.
“Over the past month, the spread in Tennessee has become deeper and unyielding. Week over week increases in hospitalizations, reported limited bed availability, and increasing deaths correlate with Halloween and related activities," the task force said in a report to Governor Bill Lee. "With Thanksgiving and upcoming holidays, Tennesseans must understand the COVID-19 situation statewide. Serious messaging and action is needed from state leadership; recommending Tennesseans wear masks in public settings communicates the current risk level and identify actions all Tennesseans need to take.”
The task force is recommending the state to take actions such as limiting indoor restaurant capacity down to less than 25%, limiting bar hours and asking people to stop gatherings beyond their immediate household until cases and test positivity lowers to "yellow." It also recommends schools to consider pausing extracurricular activities, even though athletics have not been identified as transmission risks, and ensuring students and teachers wear masks.
With Thanksgiving less than a week away, it also worries university students will become transmission risks by letting their guards down. Even though younger people are much less at risk to developing serious complications from COVID-19 and tend to be asymptomatic, their ability to spread the virus silently to older people who would be at risk remains a large concern.
Regardless of what actions, if any, the state and counties decide to take -- health experts said it remains up the people to make the choices that will truly curb the spread of the virus by following all of the five core actions of keeping physical distance, wearing face coverings, washing their hands, disinfecting surfaces and staying at home when sick.
Of Tennessee's 95 counties, 85% are in the "red zone." The report showed COVID-19 hospitalizations shot up the week of November 13, particularly for people 40 and over.
COVID-19 deaths as of November 15 increased to 4.6 per 100,000, up by 54% from the week prior. New COVID-19 cases increased to 400 per 100,000, up by by 100%.
PCR lab testing positivity also increased by roughly 3.3%, though not all tests have been reported yet. Currently, total testing is down by 26% from the week prior.
Tennessee currently has the seventh-highest rate of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people in the country, the seventeenth-highest test positivity rate, and the twentieth-highest level of new cases per 100,000, according to the task force.
Nationally, COVID-19 is surging just as bad, and worse in certain areas such as the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois. Health and disease experts had warned for months of a "fall surge" in cases due to cooler weather habits that drive people indoors and put them at risk for exposure if they disregard social distancing recommendations to gather around others.
The task force said Europe has seen a similar fall surge, but unlike the U.S. is showing early signs of improvement already through country-specific mitigation efforts such as mask mandates (many of which carry fines for non-compliance), significant restrictions on gathering size, contact tracing apps, and targeted business restrictions.
Canada has seen a surge in cases in the past month, and it believes the country's Thanksgiving gatherings in mid-October led to that surge. The difference, though, is cases were significantly lower compared to the U.S. in mid-October just before those gatherings happened. Canadian leaders cautioned people not to gather, but many ignored the warning due to fatigue of dealing with this virus for months.