KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — From her unique vantage point at the University of Tennessee, Natalie Rice sees only bad news these days for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"He doesn't look like a strong man anymore," said Rice, research associate II at the College of Communication and Information's Research and Innovation Center.
That's not a good place to be when your livelihood is based on authoritarian leadership.
The June 24 uprising of the mercenary Wagner Group, led by boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, surprised many not only in Russia but across Europe. Prigozhin and his forces took over military headquarters in the Russian city of Rostov, population 1.1 million, and then kept going toward Moscow. The move was alarming enough that Russian authorities staged forces near the capital in case they were needed for protection.
It's the Wagner Group that has proved the most effective fighting force as Putin pursues his plan to seize parts of Ukraine. He's relied heavily on Wagner mercenaries since invading Ukraine in February 2022.
In her role as a researcher, Rice spends her days monitoring Russian social media and tracking public opinion polls. She's involved in a multi-disciplinary project, funded by the U.S. Department of Defense, that looks at the effectiveness of Russian propaganda on public opinion.
The government has banned access to social platforms such as a Facebook and Instagram. But Russians still use the Telegram messaging app, and it's been telling, she said.
"Just looking at people talking on social media, a lot of people look like they were supporting the mutiny," said Rice, a native of Belarus who for the last 15 years has called the U.S. home.
That's not the only red flag indicating Putin has been wounded, she said.
Last week, after the mutiny drama abated, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko offered critical public words for Putin.
That's important because he and Putin are firm allies, so much so that when Lukashenko faced a public uprising himself a few years ago Putin announced he would send troops to Belarus if needed to help his pal out.
In a press conference last week after Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and go live in exile in Belarus, Lukashenko criticized the mutiny as a failure of the Russian army, a failure of the security services and a failure personally of Putin for not anticipating that it could happen and for responding poorly.
Never before had Lukashenko said such things openly, Rice said.
"If somebody like Lukashenko can publicly criticize him, that's a red flag," she said.
She saw another sign that bodes ill for the Russian president. When Prigozhin and his forces suddenly pulled back on their drive to Moscow and returned to Rostov, they were welcomed as heroes by "normal" Russian citizens, she said.
"That's an indication that there's something really, really wrong going on in terms of Putin's support," Rice said.
Ukraine last month launched a long-expected counter-offensive against Russia, including in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, NBC has reported. Ukraine wants to reclaim occupied territory.
Last week's drama with the Wagner Group only helps Ukraine, from a morale perspective and a practical perspective, Rice said.
It's unclear right now that all of the Wagner forces will continue the fight in Ukrainian territory following the would-be coup, she said. They were more effective on the ground than Russian troops, Rice said.
"So in terms of trying to stop the counter-offensive that the Ukrainians are engaged in right now, now compared to a week ago, the Russian military presence in Ukraine has been significantly weaker," she said.
Rice said she's now looking to see if and how Putin might shake up security forces and the Russian army leadership.
After the mutiny, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine was believed to have been detained, the Associated Press reported.
Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who has longtime links to Prigozhin, hasn’t been seen since the start of the rebellion when he posted a video urging an end to it, according to the AP.
"They were so close to Moscow," Rice said. "It looks like it caught Putin off guard, which meant that either his security apparatus -- FBS and GRU and his army -- either they didn't know about it, which shows them to be completely incapable of doing their own job or they knew about it and they didn't say anything to the Kremlin because they were hoping Prigozhin would win.
"In either of these positions there will be some very serious actions against these people, because Putin has to try to save face."
