Researchers at Vanderbilt University released a new modeling report on Wednesday indicating that while the growth of COVID-19 in Tennessee appears to have stabilized, it's too soon to know how the reopening of businesses will impact that.
While the number of cases continues to grow, some of that growth can be attributed to large spikes due to outbreaks at Tennessee prisons and increased testing.
The study confirms that social distancing efforts did have a positive impact on the spread of COVID-19, with the state achieving a projected month's worth of progress in slowing the virus in just a week.
That progress is reflected in the updated model for hospitalizations in Tennessee. Last month, the researchers predicted that hospitalizations would peak at about 1,200 people in mid-May. They now predict the peak to be at about 300, which is where we are now.
All this, however, could change once we see the impact of the end of the safer at home order.
"There are two important things to know about the data presented here. First, with an incubation period of up to 14 days, cases reported through this week likely reflect infections transmitted up to 2 weeks ago. Second, because of this time lag, we believe it is too early to assess the impact of businesses reopening across the state or of more Tennesseans resuming activities outside their homes. Therefore, data presented here should be considered a new “baseline” for monitoring changes moving forward," the researchers said in a press release.
According to the data provided by Vanderbilt, you can also see that East Tennessee is seeing some of the state's best progress.
The chart below shows the number of COVID-19 cases reported by zip code in the last 10 days. The darker colors show the most reported cases, and those are concentrated around Nashville and Memphis. The biggest increase in East Tennessee came from an outbreak at a nursing home in Athens.
The researchers said they expect the highest number of hospitalizations to be in the areas with the largest hospitals, which are in Memphis and Nashville.
You can view this and previous reports here.