There’s a lot of talk about Indiana being do-or-die today for Ted Cruz. Donald Trump says “it’s over” if Cruz loses.
But let’s be real: Cruz isn’t about to call off his campaign. Not now. Even if Trump sweeps every state leading up to June 7, the final day for primaries, he won’t have the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the Republican nomination.
That’s why Cruz now has his eyes set on California: He knows he needs to do well there next month to keep Trump from winning outright. So, with that in mind, let’s talk Indiana. (And hey, friend, if you sign up now, you can get our take on the results Wednesday morning in your inbox. For free. How cool is that?)
THE RHETORIC MAY BE TRUE
We've got 57 Republican delegates up for grabs in Indiana, and they're winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district. What are Cruz’s chances of winning them? As we noted Monday, one poll puts him up by 16 percentage points. Another says Trump is up by 15. So, we don’t really know. This could either be an epic win or an epic fail, and the political explanation for each will either be Cruz’s early VP pick and short-lived John Kasich alliance, or … yeah. That’ll pretty much be the explanation, win or lose.
WAIT – THERE MIGHT BE MORE TO IT
No matter the outcome today, pontificators will likely explain that Cruz lost (or won) because Indiana is “weird,” as the FiveThirtyEight headline put it. The state isn’t like any of its neighbors demographically or ideologically, so it’s hard to make comparisons based on how other Midwestern states voted.
Indiana has a huge blue-collar manufacturing base and a lower median income than nearby states. It also more closely resembles 1950s America – where a majority White population happily lives in small towns – than any other state. Those factors have given Trump the advantage elsewhere. But see above: Indiana ain’t like other states. Keep it weird, Hoosiers, and throw off all of us armchair pundits.
DON’T FORGET THE DEMS
Indiana may be the center of the Republican universe today, but let’s not forget about the Democratic primary. There are 83 pledged delegates up for grabs, divided proportionally as in other states. Hillary Clinton may have a slight edge, according to the polls, but it could go either way. Independents can vote for either party in Indiana rather easily, and if a lot of them turn out for Bernie Sanders … OK, let’s be honest. Sanders may notch more delegates, but at this point, it’s pretty much California or bust.
MORE FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
- From the “wait – you’re still here?” file: Even the good voters in John Kasich’s home state of Ohio want him to drop out (Cincinnati Enquirer)
- Weirdly, Carly Fiorina falling off stage is not the most awkward thing that’s happened since Cruz named her as his VP (USA TODAY)
- It’s against every law of physics for rival former basketball coaches Bobby Knight AND Gene Keady to endorse Trump in Indiana. Look for tornadoes, earthquakes (Indianapolis Star)
- Gary, Ind., could be a poster child for everything people are upset about in 2016. So why does nobody care? (Indianapolis Star)
GET YOUR WOMAN CARDS HERE
Even Donald Trump should give props for their business acumen. First, Hillary Clinton’s campaign started selling $5 woman credit cards – a snarky riff on Trump’s comments that Clinton is “playing the woman card” to get votes. Now, two siblings in Iowa are making a deck of woman playing cards for $15. They bought the domain thewomancard.com and met their Kickstarter goal in a matter of hours. The first edition will feature women like Amelia Earhart, Beyoncé and – of course – Clinton on the ace.
